A fuzzy logic-based approach for evaluating forest ecosystem service provision and biodiversity applied to a case study landscape in Southern Germany

Abstract

AbstractIn the field of assessing forest ecosystem service provision and biodiversity, there seems to be a gap between an existing large body of valuable expert knowledge and its application. We propose fuzzy logic evaluation systems as a contribution to closing that gap. With this method-focused pilot study, we explored the potential of fuzzy logic for assessing the provision of different ecosystem services in a simulation case study, covering a large forest landscape in Southern Germany. Based on expert knowledge and available literature, we designed a fuzzy logic evaluation system for biodiversity, and the ecosystem services balanced wood production, storm and bark beetle damage resistance, and recreation value. This evaluation system was applied to 100-year simulation outcomes for three contrasting forest management scenarios in the landscape of interest. While the results of the case study in general support the idea of a multifunctional forest management, fuzzy logic turned out pronouncedly useful as a method. This is due to its potential to make otherwise unused expert knowledge applicable and transparent in a formal evaluation process. Based on our results, we discuss the approach related to its potential for interdisciplinary integration of knowledge, for revealing tradeoffs and synergies, and participative planning processes.