Forecasting without historical data: Bayesian probability models utilizing expert opinions

Author:

Driver Jeffrey F.,Alemi Farrokh

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Health Information Management,Health Informatics,Information Systems,Medicine (miscellaneous)

Reference11 articles.

1. Gustafson, D. H., Cats-Bariel, W., and Alemi, F., Modelling experts knowledge: The integrative group process, inHealth Policy Information Systems, Health Administration Press, 1991.

2. Fryback, D. G., Bayes theorem and conditional nonindependence of data in medical diagnosis.Comput. Biomed. Res. 11:423–434, 1978.

3. Lichtenstein, S., and Phillips, L. D., Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art. In (Jungermann and Zeeuw, eds.),Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs, Ridel, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 1977.

4. Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. and Lichtenstein, S., Knowing with certainty the appropriateness of extreme confidence.J. Exp. Psychol. Hum. Perform. Percept. 3(4):552–564, 1977.

5. Gustafson, D. H., Griest, J. H., Stauss, F. F., Erdman, H., and Laughren, T., A probabilistic system for identifying suicide attempters.Comput. Biomed. Res. 10:83–89, 1977.

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2. Combining surveillance and expert evidence of viral hemorrhagic septicemia freedom: A decision science approach;Preventive Veterinary Medicine;2010-04

3. Bayesian Decision Models in Health Care;Encyclopedia of Biostatistics;2005-07-15

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