Differentiating broadcast from viral: a causal inference approach for information diffusion analysis

Abstract

AbstractClassifying information diffusion patterns is critical to many information analysis areas, e.g., misleading information detection. However, diffusion pattern classification remains challenging when multiple users are involved. To address this challenge, this study aims to classify how information diffuses, distinguishing between broadcast and viral spreading, solely through the analysis of observational data from retweet networks on X (formerly known as Twitter). In broadcasting, most users directly receive information. However, viral spreading allows users the opportunity to receive information from a variety of sources. Therefore, viral spreading increases the likelihood of identifying misleading information. Existing methods classify diffusion types mainly through structural virality, which relies on the average distance between the users. However, when dealing with diffusion networks involving two or more information sources, these approaches can potentially lead to confusion regarding causality. To tackle this problem, we develop a deterministic causal inference method for categorizing information diffusion types. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study investigating information diffusion types based on causality. This approach can be used to assess source credibility and assist in detecting misleading information. It can also be extended to other social media platforms. Graphical Abstract