How to quantify the regional effects of ocean temperature rise due to climate change: implications of Octopus maya ecophysiology on food security of the Yucatan shelf artisanal fishermen

Abstract

AbstractThe vital survival, maturation, and reproduction rates of Octopus maya were formulated according to the thermal preferences in each stage (juvenile and adult) and the bottom temperature of the Yucatan shelf projected from different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP1-5, to describe the species population growth in shallow waters. The dispersion of each individual in the population and the spread of the offshore population were incorporated with an integrodifference equation. For each SSP, the food security of the artisanal fishermen in the Western, Central, and Eastern Yucatan shelf region was analyzed based on the proposed availability, access, and utilization indices of Octopus maya as food. The analysis was complemented with an average monthly protein and income poverty indicators that this species’ shallow water fishery would have the capacity to supply by the year 2100. Although the proportion of the legally O. maya catchable population may be favored with the gradual increase in temperature in the coming years, this increase may not translate into greater food security for the artisanal fishermen who catch this species in shallow waters. Moreover, this fishery alone may not have the capacity to supply the average annual intake of 10.6 kg of protein per person recommended and maintain fishermen and their families above the income poverty line by 2100.