Comparative evaluation of uncertainty estimation and decomposition methods on liver segmentation

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Deep neural networks need to be able to indicate error likelihood via reliable estimates of their predictive uncertainty when used in high-risk scenarios, such as medical decision support. This work contributes a systematic overview of state-of-the-art approaches for decomposing predictive uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components, and a comprehensive comparison for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) between mutual information decomposition and the explicit modelling of both uncertainty types via an additional loss-attenuating neuron. Methods Experiments are performed in the context of liver segmentation in CT scans. The quality of the uncertainty decomposition in the resulting uncertainty maps is qualitatively evaluated, and quantitative behaviour of decomposed uncertainties is systematically compared for different experiment settings with varying training set sizes, label noise, and distribution shifts. Results Our results show the mutual information decomposition to robustly yield meaningful aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimates, while the activation of the loss-attenuating neuron appears noisier with non-trivial convergence properties. We found that the addition of a heteroscedastic neuron does not significantly improve segmentation performance or calibration, while slightly improving the quality of uncertainty estimates. Conclusions Mutual information decomposition is simple to implement, has mathematically pleasing properties, and yields meaningful uncertainty estimates that behave as expected under controlled changes to our data set. The additional extension of BNNs with loss-attenuating neurons provides no improvement in terms of segmentation performance or calibration in our setting, but marginal benefits regarding the quality of decomposed uncertainties.