In Search of the "Right" Integration Effects: From Complex to Simple Modeling

Abstract

AbstractRecently, studies with different methods (computable general equilibrium models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, structural gravity equations) evaluated the European Union’s Single Market. The problem with all these studies is that they use complex models with datasets that are not always replicable. This paper demonstrates that even a simple model of the European Union can capture the most important effects of European economic integration: the European Union’s Single Market, the introduction of the Euro, and the following European Union enlargements. A simple European Union model, built with the publicly available program, EViews, serves this purpose. The dataset is also freely available from the European Commission. This makes the model results replicable. Evaluation of Austrian membership in the European Union is in the foreground of the analysis with the simple European Union model, followed by the next steps of integration, such as the introduction of the Euro and the big European Union enlargements. However, this prototype model is also able to estimate the integration effects of other European Union member states.