A Risk Model for Predicting Fetuses with Trisomy 21 Using Alpha-Fetoprotein Variants L2 Combined with Maternal Serum Biomarkers in Early Pregnancy

Abstract

AbstractTo establish a risk prediction model and the clinical value of trisomy 21 using alpha-fetoprotein variants L2 (AFP-L2) combined with maternal serum biomarkers and nuchal translucency (NT) thickness in early pregnancy. A retrospective case–control study was conducted. The subjects were divided into the case group (n = 40) or the control group (n = 40). An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to measure the maternal serum AFP-L2 level in both groups. The AFP-L2 single-index or multi-index combined risk model was used to predict the efficiency of trisomy 21. The best cut-off value and area under the curve (AUC) were determined to evaluate the predictive efficacy of different risk models constructed by AFP-L2. The maternal serum AFP-L2 level in the case group was 1.59 (0.61–3.61) Multiple of medium (MoM), which was higher than 1.00 (0.39–2.12) MoM in the control group (P < 0.001). The free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (free β-hCG) level and NT in the case group were significantly higher than those in the control group (P < 0.001). The pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) level in the case group was lower than that in the control group (P < 0.001). The AUC of AFP-L2 in predicting trisomy 21 was 0.797. After considering the maternal serum AFP-L2 level, the AUC, detection rate (DR), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), falsepositive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), positive likelihood ratio (+LR), and negative likelihood ratio (-LR) were significantly improved. In this study, PAPP-A + free β-hCG + NT + AFP-L2 and PAPP-A + free β-hCG + AFP-L2 increased the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net classification improvement (NRI) of predicting fetuses with trisomy 21 (1.10% and 5.27%; 11.07% and 2.78%)  (1.10% and 5.27%; 11.07% and 2.78%), respectively, after considering the maternal serum AFP-L2 level. The maternal serum AFP-L2 level in early pregnancy had high sensitivity and specificity, and it was a good biomarker to predict fetuses with trisomy 21.