Semiautomatic robust regression clustering of international trade data

Abstract

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to show in regression clustering how to choose the most relevant solutions, analyze their stability, and provide information about best combinations of optimal number of groups, restriction factor among the error variance across groups and level of trimming. The procedure is based on two steps. First we generalize the information criteria of constrained robust multivariate clustering to the case of clustering weighted models. Differently from the traditional approaches which are based on the choice of the best solution found minimizing an information criterion (i.e. BIC), we concentrate our attention on the so called optimal stable solutions. In the second step, using the monitoring approach, we select the best value of the trimming factor. Finally, we validate the solution using a confirmatory forward search approach. A motivating example based on a novel dataset concerning the European Union trade of face masks shows the limitations of the current existing procedures. The suggested approach is initially applied to a set of well known datasets in the literature of robust regression clustering. Then, we focus our attention on a set of international trade datasets and we provide a novel informative way of updating the subset in the random start approach. The Supplementary material, in the spirit of the Special Issue, deepens the analysis of trade data and compares the suggested approach with the existing ones available in the literature.