Predicer: abstract stochastic optimisation model framework for multi-market operation

Abstract

AbstractAn open-source modelling framework Predicer, standing for Predictive Decider, for multi-market day-ahead market operation purposes is described in this paper. The Predicer model uses scenario-based stochastic optimisation to obtain decision variables and bid matrixes for energy and reserve markets by maximising the risk-adjusted expected value of the profit during the model time frame. The modelled energy system structure is abstract, that is, based on basic elements such as nodes representing different energy types and processes representing flows between nodes. The abstract model structure enables user to construct arbitrary energy systems and define links between assets, commodities, energy markets and reserve markets. Predicer model can include properties such as unit ramp rates, online units, dynamic energy storages, market realisation and market bidding requirements. The aggregation of unit-based energy and reserve opportunities into a virtual power plant allows the asset owner to make optimized portfolio-level bids for different market products. The model scenarios consist of user defined forecasts for market prices, renewable energy supply, energy demand and other system related time series. Predicer is implemented in Julia programming language and uses the JuMP optimisation package.