The Value of Drilling—A Chance-Constrained Optimization Approach

Abstract

AbstractManaging uncertainty is a core challenge in mine planning. Mine planners often represent various planning variables, such as equipment performance and geological parameters, as random variables due to inherent uncertainties. This paper looks at geological uncertainty and its impact on mine planning. Some traditional approaches to manage this uncertainty include using conditional simulations or mathematical programming in the planning process. Drilling additional holes, despite its cost, is a common method to reduce uncertainty using additional samples to reduce deposit variance. In this paper, we first outline an ore blending optimization model which uses chance-constrained programming to manage property limit risk when selecting the order of ore feed into a processing facility. In coal mining, in tactical planning horizons, the order of coal seam removal is usually predetermined, allowing a blending model to ensure optimal feed properties. Using chance-constrained programming allows us to blend the uncertainties from geological models to maximize plant output while adhering to property constraints. We use the chance-constrained blending model to determine the value of additional information from infill drilling. The model prioritizes drilling locations that reduce uncertainty and improve blending outcomes. A case study on a coking coal mine in Queensland, Australia, demonstrates the model’s application, highlighting significant improvements in blending by reducing the variance of high-quality blocks. The study concludes that targeting high-quality blocks for variance reduction can better accommodate lower-quality material, offering a more valuable approach than the traditional focus of reducing uncertainty in low-quality blocks. This approach provides insights for improving mine planning strategies and showcases the potential of chance constraints in optimizing ore blending under uncertainty.