Variances in Smoking Expectancies Predict Moment-to-Moment Smoking Behaviors in Everyday Life

Abstract

Abstract Background Many policy decisions about tobacco control are predicated on rational choice models, which posit (1) that smokers are aware of the risks of cigarettes and (2) that perceived risks have a consistent influence on continued smoking behavior. However, research shows that beliefs about smoking may be vulnerable to changes in internal and external contexts. Methods Using ecological momentary assessment, we tested this by measuring how smokers’ (N = 52) beliefs about smoking varied over time. Four times per day over 1 week, participants responded to measures of smoking intentions, risk perceptions, mood and social outcome expectancies, and internal and external contextual factors. Results We analyzed this data using multilevel modeling, finding that both smoking intentions, risk perceptions, and expectancies differed between participants as well as between moments. Conclusion Risk perceptions and mood expectancies were a significant predictor of intentions to smoke in the next 30 min, illustrating the importance of these beliefs in decisional processes. This study was preregistered at the Open Science Foundation: https://osf.io/wmv3s/?view_only=71ad66d3ce3845fcb3bf2b9860d820c9. Our analytic plan was not preregistered.