The ratio of serum C-reactive protein level on postoperative day 3 to day 2 is a good marker to predict postoperative complications after laparoscopic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Study reported that C-reactive protein (CRP) would peak at 48 h after the initiation of an acute inflammatory response. We proposed that the ratio of CRP level on postoperative day 3 to day 2 (POD3/2 CRP) can be used to early predict major postoperative complications (PCs) for patients who underwent laparoscopic radical gastrectomy. Methods Patients were randomized into training cohort and validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. PCs greater than grade II or more, according to Clavien-Dindo classification, were defined as major PCs. Three predictive models for major PCs based on CRP level were constructed, including POD3/2 CRP, the CRP level on POD3 (POD3 CRP), and the ratio of CRP level on POD3 to POD1 (POD3/1 CRP). The performances of three prediction models were assessed by AUC. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors of major PCs. Results 344 patients were included. Major PCs were observed in 57 patients (16.6%). In the training cohort, POD3/2 CRP provided the best diagnostic accuracy with an AUC of 0.929 at an optimal cut-off value of 1.08, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.902 and 0.880, respectively. In the validation cohort, the corresponding AUC was 0.917. BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and POD3/2 CRP > 1 were identified as risk factors for major PCs. Conclusion POD3/2 CRP is a reliable marker to predict major PCs after laparoscopic radical gastrectomy. If CRP is higher on POD3 than on POD2, major PCs are highly likely.