A novel liver-function-indicators-based prognosis signature for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with anti-programmed cell death-1 therapy

Abstract

Abstract Background The liver function reserve has a significant impact on the therapeutic effects of anti-programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the ability of liver-function-based indicators to predict prognosis and construct a novel prognostic score for HCC patients with anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. Methods Between July 2018 and January 2020, patients diagnosed with HCC who received anti-PD-1 treatment were screened for inclusion in the study. The valuable prognostic liver-function-based indicators were selected using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to build a novel liver-function-indicators-based signature (LFIS). Concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Kaplan–Meier survival curves were utilized to access the predictive performance of LFIS. Results A total of 434 HCC patients who received anti-PD-1 treatment were included in the study. The LFIS, based on alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio index, Child–Pugh score, platelet-albumin score, aspartate aminotransferase-to-lymphocyte ratio index, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-lymphocyte ratio index, was constructed and identified as an independent risk factor for patient survival. The C-index of LFIS for overall survival (OS) was 0.692, which was higher than the other single liver-function-based indicator. The AUC of LFIS at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month were 0.74, 0.714, 0.747, and 0.865 for OS, respectively. Patients in the higher-risk LFIS group were associated with both worse OS and PFS. An online and easy-to-use calculator was further constructed for better application of the LFIS signature. Conclusion The LFIS score had an excellent prognosis prediction ability superior to every single liver-function-based indicator for anti-PD-1 treatment in HCC patients. It is a reliable, easy-to-use tool to stratify risk for OS and PFS in HCC patients who received anti-PD-1 treatment.