The development and utilization of shale oil and gas resources in China and economic analysis of energy security under the background of global energy crisis

Abstract

AbstractThe key scientific problem to be solved in this paper is the optimal development and utilization model and the economic evaluation model of China's land-phase shale oil and gas resources, and the purpose of the research is to promote the large-scale commercial development and utilization of China's shale oil and gas resources, and to safeguard China's oil and gas energy security and the sustainable development of the economy. The article proposes to adopt the small surface element volume method (oil content rate method) to evaluate the pure shale oil resources, adopt the Cobb–Douglas production function model as the optimization model to measure the boundary production capacity of shale oil and gas, construct the optimal development and utilization model for shale oil and gas resources considering the five first-level safeguard indexes, namely, science and technology (A), capital (K), talents (L), reserves (S) and ecological environment (E), and establish the basic constraint model for the optimal development and utilization of shale oil and gas resources. The basic constraint model, as well as the evaluation model of economic coefficients for the development and utilization of shale oil and gas resources were established. The pure shale oil resources are mainly calculated based on the movable oil content of shale. In the paper, the S1 of normal pyrolysis (300 °C) is regarded as movable oil, and the sum of S1 and evaporated hydrocarbon (light hydrocarbon) loss is the movable oil content of shale. The integrated geological-physical exploration-engineering comprehensive evaluation of China’s land-phase shale oil-rich and high-yielding “sweet spot” is an important prerequisite for the realization of shale oil and gas resources to build production scale and effective development, and the least-squares method is used to estimate the average production function, the distance to the maximum value of the residuals, and the boundary capacity production function. The average production function and residual maximum distance are estimated by the least squares method, and the production function of the boundary capacity is derived, and the quotient of the boundary capacity and the actual capacity is calculated to get the capacity utilization rate, which can be used to analyze the potential of future shale oil and gas growth. The development of shale oil and gas resources in a target block requires comprehensive consideration of the first-level guarantee indicators such as science and technology (A), capital (K), talents (L), reserves (S) and ecological environment (E), as well as more than 10 s-level indicators and a number of third-level indicators, in order to ensure that the oil companies maximize their profits by organizing the development and production. The economic coefficient can be expressed as the ratio of economically recoverable resources to geological reserves. The larger the economic coefficient for the development and utilization of shale oil and gas resources is, the better the economy of the area is, and the larger the proportion of shale oil and gas resources that can be exploited. There is little special literature on the optimal development and utilization model of shale oil and gas resources and energy security among many research results at home and abroad. The evaluation of pure shale oil using the small surface element volume method (oil content rate method) and the construction of the boundary capacity calculation model, the optimal development of the basic constraints model and the economic evaluation model that we have determined, although they can not yet fully cover all the links and factors related to the development and utilization of shale oil and gas resources, are not yet fully covered by our research work. However, our research work has given the model more geological and economic theoretical connotations, and provided an economic basis and technical reference for the large-scale and commercial development and utilization of shale oil and gas resources as an effective alternative to oil imports.