Studies on natural gas reserves multi-cycle growth law in Sichuan Basin based on multi-peak identification and peak parameter prediction

Abstract

AbstractResearch on predicting the growth trend of natural gas reserves will help provide theoretical guidance for natural gas exploration in Sichuan Basin. The growth trend of natural gas reserves in Sichuan Basin is multi-cycle and complex. The multi-cyclic peak is screened by the original multi-cyclic peak judgment standard. Metabolically modified GM(1,3) gray prediction method is used to predict the multi-cycle model parameters. The multi-cycle Hubbert model and Gauss model are used to predict the growth trend of natural gas reserves. The research results show that: (1) The number of cycles of natural gas reserves curve during 1956–2018 is 13. Natural gas reserves will maintain the trend of rapid growth in the short term. (2) Metabolism modified GM(1,3) gray prediction model can improve the accuracy of model prediction. The prediction accuracy of Hubbert model is higher than that of Gauss model. By 2030, the cumulative proven level of natural gas will reach 52.34%. The Sichuan Basin will reach its peak of proven lifetime reserves in the next few years.