Establishment and application of prediction model of natural gas reserve and production in Sichuan Basin

Abstract

AbstractResearch on predicting the growth trend of natural gas reserves and production will help provide a scientific basis for natural gas exploration and development. The metabolically improved modified weight coefficient GM(1,n) method is applied to the multi-cycle Hubbert model to predict the trend of new proven natural gas reserves in the Sichuan Basin. The ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) is introduced as a boundary condition in the production-time series to predict the natural gas production growth. The research results show that: (1) The annual newly added proven natural gas reserves of the Sichuan Basin maintain a multi-cycle growth trend, which will reach the peak reserves in 2034, at which time the proven rate of natural gas will reach 36%. (2) Based on the predicted results of proven reserves, the final recoverable reserves of natural gas are estimated to be $$5.25-5.75\times {10}^{12}{m}^{3}$$ 5.25 - 5.75 × 10 12 m 3 . The production in 2035 will reach $$750-810\times {10}^{8}{\mathrm{m}}^{3}/\mathrm{a}$$ 750 - 810 × 10 8 m 3 / a , and production will grow rapidly. The exploration and development of natural gas in the basin will be prospective for a long time.