Evaluating the prognostic value of tumor deposits in non-metastatic lymph node-positive colon adenocarcinoma using Cox regression and machine learning

Abstract

Abstract Background The 8th AJCC TNM staging for non-metastatic lymph node-positive colon adenocarcinoma patients(NMLP-CA) stages solely by lymph node status, irrespective of the positivity of tumor deposits (TD). This study uses machine learning and Cox regression to predict the prognostic value of tumor deposits in NMLP-CA. Methods Patient data from the SEER registry (2010–2019) was used to develop CSS nomograms based on prognostic factors identified via multivariate Cox regression. Model performance was evaluated by c-index, dynamic calibration, and Schmid score. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were used to explain the selected models. Results The study included 16,548 NMLP-CA patients, randomized 7:3 into training (n = 11,584) and test (n = 4964) sets. Multivariate Cox analysis identified TD, age, marital status, primary site, grade, pT stage, and pN stage as prognostic for cancer-specific survival (CSS). In the test set, the gradient boosting machine (GBM) model achieved the best C-index (0.733) for CSS prediction, while the Cox model and GAMBoost model optimized dynamic calibration(6.473) and Schmid score (0.285), respectively. TD ranked among the top 3 most important features in the models, with increasing predictive significance over time. Conclusions Positive tumor deposit status confers worse prognosis in NMLP-CA patients. Tumor deposits may confer higher TNM staging. Furthermore, TD could play a more significant role in the staging system.