Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, a new measure for uncertainty that affects the economy is proposed, constructed, and applied to an emerging economy, Türkiye. We have constructed an index of economic country-specific uncertainty (ECSU) that is in line with the methodology used in constructing economic policy uncertainty indexes. As the economic uncertainty is of the Knightian type, the essence of measuring it lies in counting the frequency of joint appearances of words related to economics and uncertainty in Turkish-language newspapers. The uncertainty index constructed using local language sources- Turkish performs significantly better in measuring country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye. However, some indexes use English language sources to measure uncertainty in Türkiye- did not make them country-specific. The ECSU was tested by evaluating the dynamic real effects of the uncertainty. This evaluation was performed by the analysis of impulse responses from uncertainty to some economic variables in a vector autoregressive model describing the economy of Türkiye. We find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty in the Turkish-language press is related to decreases in industrial production, employment, and trade. If the uncertainty measure is based on the articles from the English-language press only, no such relationship can be confirmed. We also find that an increase in uncertainty leads to increase in inflation and stock and oil prices.