Forecasting bankruptcy in the wood industry

Abstract

AbstractThe assessment of a company’s financial condition is an effective tool, which supports the management system. Nowadays a number of models are available, most often multi-branch ones, which are able to predict the financial situation of an enterprise. Models solely intended for just one line of business are a rarity. As far as the wood sector is concerned, no homogenous model suited to the sector has been created. The article aims to present the final stage of research dealing with predicting bankruptcy in the wood sector. The bankruptcy prediction model presented in this paper, called the model for forecasting bankruptcy of wood enterprises (FMWE), has been developed specifically for the wood sector. The process of model construction was presented and the correctness of forecasts built with the use of FMWE was verified. The predictions were based on 1-, 2- or 3-year periods. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the FMWE projections was compared to the 10 most popular bankruptcy prediction models used in Poland. It was observed that in comparison with other prediction models, FMWE predictions for this particular industry indicate greater credibility, up to 90%, for 1-year and 2-year predictions.