Abstract
AbstractThe final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing this information is relevant because it is related to the severity of the epidemics. The objective of this work is to give a formula for the total number of symptomatic cases throughout an epidemic. Specifically, we focus on different types of structured SIR epidemic models (in which infected individuals can possibly become symptomatic before recovering), and we compute the accumulated number of symptomatic cases when time goes to infinity using a probabilistic approach. The methodology behind the strategy we follow is relatively independent of the details of the model.
Funder
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Computational Theory and Mathematics,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Pharmacology,General Environmental Science,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Mathematics,Immunology,General Neuroscience