Criteria of sea level, return periods, and design risk factor in Port Said Harbor (Egypt)

Abstract

AbstractThis work delivers comprehensive information on the statistical metrics of sea level in Port Said Harbor, which can be used for the mitigation plans and protection measures in its vicinity. The study used hourly sea level data extended over 10 years from January 2002 to December 2011. A comprehensive descriptive statistical analysis of sea level monthly variations was introduced. The T_Tide package was used to obtain the astronomical constituents, which are in turn used to calculate the form factor to specify the tidal cycle in the Harbor, and to obtain the main water level characteristics. The meteorological factor was calculated by subtracting the tidal elevation from the recorded sea level. The impact of the meteorological factors on the observed sea level fluctuations was more obvious in winter than in summer. The effect of the meteorological conditions on the observed possible largest sea level range was $${~}^{1}\!\left/ \!{~}_{3}\right.$$ 1 3 that of the tidal impact. No extreme sea level year, considered when the annual mean deviates from the regression line by more than twice the standard deviation, appeared during the decade of investigation. The return periods and the design lifetime risk were calculated. The highest probabilities of occurrence were concentrated in the levels between 70 and 80 cm, while the lowest were below 5 cm and above 110 cm. The return periods for all water levels ranged between 0.4 and 4.5 years. The coastal structures in the vicinity of the Harbor may have a short lifetime of only 50 years for its most pronounced level (75 cm). It is recommended to consider the present results upon designing mitigation plans and constructions within Port Said Harbor territory.