Assessing the impact of climate change on the Medjerda River Basin

Abstract

Abstract Assessing the availability of water resources in the changing climate is needed to meet current and future water needs. This paper assesses the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Medjerda River Basin (MRB) (shared between Tunisia and Algeria) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model under two climatic scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. The results showed that water demands will increase from 218 Mm3 in 2020 to 395 Mm3 in 2050, which means that water supply will be insufficient to meet water needs, especially during the prolonged periods of drought. In addition, water shortage in MRB increases three times compared with the reference scenario, which means that all vital sectors in MRB will be affected by climate change. Moreover, groundwater storage will be affected in diffrent areas, especially between 2045 and 2050. Therefore, national and regional stakeholder involvement is needed to build an integrated water resource management strategy, by which water resource allocation and adaptation plans can be addressed and assessed in each sector by experts to achieve sustainability.