Incidence Rates and Predictors of Recurrent Long-Term Mental Sickness Absence Due to Common Mental Disorders

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Several predictors have been identified for mental sickness absence, but those for recurrences are not well-understood. This study assesses recurrence rates for long-term mental sickness absence (LTMSA) within subgroups of common mental disorders (CMDs) and identifies predictors of recurrent LTMSA. Methods This historical prospective cohort study used routinely collected data from 16,310 employees obtained from a nationally operating Dutch occupational health service (ArboNed). Total follow-up duration was 23,334 person-years. Overall recurrence rates were assessed using Kaplan–Meier estimators. Recurrence rates within subgroups of CMDs were calculated using person-years. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors. Results 15.6% of employees experienced a recurrent LTMSA episode within three years after fully returning to work after a previous LTMSA episode. Highest recurrence rates for LTMSA were observed after a previous LTMSA episode due to mood or anxiety disorders. Mood or anxiety disorders and shorter previous episode duration were predictors of recurrent LTMSA. No associations were found for age, gender, company size, full-time equivalent and job tenure. Conclusion Employees should be monitored adequately after they fully returned to work after LTMSA. It is recommended to monitor high-risk employees (i.e. employees with mood or anxiety disorders and short LTMSA episode) more intensively, also beyond full return to work. Moreover, diagnosis of anxiety and depressive symptoms should be given a higher priority in occupational healthcare.