Prognostic value of screening instrument based on the Dutch national VMS guidelines for older patients in the emergency department

Abstract

Abstract Purpose It is important to identify which older patients attending the emergency department are at risk of adverse outcomes to introduce preventive interventions. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a shortened screening instrument based on the Dutch national Safety Management System [Veiligheidsmanagementsysteem (VMS)] guidelines for adverse outcomes in older emergency department patients. Methods A cohort study was performed including patients aged 70 years or older who visited the emergency department. Adverse outcomes included hospital admission, return emergency department visits within 30 days, and 90-day mortality. The prognostic value of the VMS-score was assessed for these adverse events and, in addition, a prediction model was developed for 90-day mortality. Results A high VMS-score was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital admission [OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.32–3.86)] and 90-day mortality [HR 2.48 (95% CI 1.31–4.71)]. The individual VMS-questions regarding history of delirium and help in activities of daily living were associated with these outcomes as well. A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed and showed satisfactory calibration and good discrimination [AUC 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.87)]. A cut-off point that selected 30% of patients at the highest risk yielded a sensitivity of 67.4%, a specificity of 75.3%, a positive predictive value of 28.5%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%. Conclusion The shortened VMS-based screening instrument showed to be of good prognostic value for hospitalization and 90-day mortality. The prediction model for mortality showed promising results and will be further validated and optimized.