Quantification of overnight urinary gonadotropin excretion predicts imminent puberty in girls: a semi-longitudinal study

Abstract

Abstract Purpose We explored the alternative of using overnight fold change in gonadotropin levels by comparing the last-night-voided (LNV) and first-morning-voided (FMV) urine concentrations of luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) as a conceptual analogy to the invasive gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulation test setting. Methods We investigated the nocturnal changes in the immunoreactivity levels of urinary gonadotropins between early and late prepubertal stages as well as between early and late pubertal stages in FMV and LNV urine samples from 30 girls, of whom those who were prepubertal were further investigated through follow-up visits within the 1-year period from the start of the study. Results ROC analysis revealed that the FMV total U-LH and FMV U-FSH concentrations at or above 0.3 IU/L and 2.5 IU/L, respectively, were excellent predictors of forthcoming onset of puberty within 1 year (100% sensitivity, 100% specificity, AUC: 1.00, and n = 10, for both). FMV total U-LH concentration at or above 0.8 IU/L represented the cut-off for clinical signs of puberty. FMV/LNV total U-LH and FMV/LNV U-FSH ratios at or below 4.11 and 1.38, respectively, were also good predictors of the onset of clinical puberty within 1 year. An overnight increase (FMV/LNV ratio) in total U-LH concentrations and in the U-LH/U-FSH ratio at or below 1.2-fold in pubertal girls was associated with the postmenarcheal pubertal stage. Conclusion FMV total U-LH and U-FSH above 0.3 IU/L and 2.5 IU/L, respectively, can be used as cut-off values to predict the manifestation of the clinical signs of puberty within 1 year. FMV total U-LH concentrations 0.3–0.8 IU/L and 0.6 IU/L may represent the range and the threshold, respectively, that reflect the loosening of the central brake on the GnRH pulse generator. An overnight increase of 20% or less in total U-LH concentrations and in the U-LH/U-FSH ratio in an early pubertal girl may serve as an indicator of imminent menarche, a presumed timing of which can be unraveled by future longitudinal studies.