Epidemics and policy: the dismal trade-offs

Author:

Russo Francesco FlavianoORCID

Abstract

AbstractI propose a stochastic SIR-Macro model to study the effects of alternative mitigation policies to cope with an epidemic. Lockdowns that force firms to close and that discontinue social activities slow down the progression of the epidemic at the cost of reducing GDP and increasing debt and, on average, decrease mortality. Testing-Tracing-Quarantine policies decrease mortality at a lower cost, but they are effective only if thorough. I find that lockdowns work best in case of a bigger average family size, of a diffused labor market participation and of a bigger average firm size.

Funder

Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Sociology and Political Science,Finance

Reference31 articles.

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