Short-term load forecasting: cascade intuitionistic fuzzy time series—univariate and bivariate models

Abstract

AbstractShort-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for developing reliable and sustainable economic and operational strategies for power systems. This study presents a forecasting model combining cascade forward neural network (CFNN) and intuitionistic fuzzy time series (IFTS) models for STLF. The proposed cascading intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model (C-IFTS-FM) offers the advantage of CFNN using the links of both linear and nonlinear to model fuzzy relations between inputs and outputs. Moreover, it offers a more reliable and realistic approach to uncertainty, taking notice of also the degree of hesitation. C-IFTS-FM works in univariate structure when it uses only hourly load data, and in bivariate structure when it uses hourly load data and hourly temperature time series together. The conversion of time series into IFTS is realized with intuitionistic fuzzy c-means (IFCM). Thus, the membership and non-membership values for each data point are produced. In modelling process, membership and non-membership values, in addition to actual lagged observations, are used as input of the CFNNs. The effectiveness of C-IFTS-FM on test sets for both structures was discussed comparatively via different error criteria, in addition, the convergence time was examined, and also the fit of forecasts and observations was presented with different illustrations. Among different combinations of hyperparameters, in the best case, approximately 86% better accuracy is achieved than the best of the others, while even in the case of the worst of hyperparameters combination, the accuracy was improved by over 20% for the PSJM data sets. For HEXING, CHENGNAN, and EUNITE data sets, these progress rates reached approximately 90% in the best case.