Baseline serum neurofilament light chain levels differentiate aggressive from benign forms of relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis: a 20-year follow-up cohort

Abstract

Abstract Background and objectives Serum biomarkers are emerging as useful prognostic tools for multiple sclerosis (MS); however, long-term studies are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of the serum levels of neurofilament light chain (NfL), total tau, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and chitinase 3-like-1 (CHI3L1) measured close to the time of MS onset. Methods In this retrospective, exploratory, observational, case and controls study, patients with relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS) with available baseline serum samples and prospectively follow-up in our MS unit for a long time were selected based on their clinical evolution to form two groups: (1) a benign RRMS (bRRMS) group, defined as patients with an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of ≤ 3 at ≥ 10 years of follow-up; (2) an aggressive RRMS (aRRMS) group, defined as patients with an EDSS score of ≥ 6 at ≤ 15 years of follow-up. An age-matched healthy control (HC) group was selected. NfL, total tau, and GFAP serum levels were quantified using a single-molecule array (SIMOA), and CHI3L1 was quantified using ELISA. Results Thirty-one patients with bRRMS, 19 with aRRMS, and 10 HC were included. The median follow-up time from sample collection was 17.74 years (interquartile range, 14.60–20.37). Bivariate and multivariate analyses revealed significantly higher NfL and GFAP levels in the aRRMS group than in the bRRMS group. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis identified serum NfL level as the most efficient marker for distinguishing aRRMS from bRRMS. Discussion This proof-of-concept study comparing benign and aggressive RRMS groups reinforces the potential role of baseline NfL serum levels as a promising long-term disability prognostic marker. In contrast, serum GFAP, total tau, and CHI3L1 levels demonstrated a lower or no ability to differentiate between the long-term outcomes of RRMS.