Modelling the Symphyotrichum lanceolatum invasion in Slovakia, Central Europe

Abstract

AbstractSymphyotrichum lanceolatum (Willd.) G. L. Nesom is an alien invasive species in Europe, where it presents a potential threat to natural habitats. Its rapid expansion in recent decades raises questions and concerns about the causes and consequences of its spread in Slovakia. We investigated natural and anthropogenic habitats along with topographic and environmental factors, including changing climatic conditions such as air temperature and precipitation totals to adjust prediction models of the species distribution. Using 19 various algorithms, the models for the past, present, and future were calculated based on 395 octoploid populations selected by flow cytometry. The models revealed the potential species distribution along rivers and in human settlements and its increasing during the period 1970–2060 from 23.6 to 53.85% of the territory as a result of climatic change. A conditional inference tree indicates that the expansion can be limited by a mean annual air temperature below 8 °C and a pH of soil less than 5.5. Therefore, there is a high probability of the further spread of S. lanceolatum across Slovakia.