An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Implications on Bonaire

Abstract

AbstractBonaire’s topographic and geographic characteristics, in combination with the island’s high dependency on economic sectors that are susceptible to the impacts of climate change, make this Caribbean island particularly vulnerable to climatic changes. In this study, biophysical and economic models are combined and complemented with stakeholder consultation to assess and quantify environmental effects and associated socio-economic impacts of climate change on Bonaire. We apply three climate scenarios of the 2021 IPCC report (SSP1-2.6, 2–4.5, and 5–8.5) and combine them with local conditions to conduct a site-specific integrated assessment. The results show that various buildings, critical infrastructure, and identified tangible cultural heritage, especially at the south of Bonaire, are at risk of climate change induced coastal inundation by 2050, even under the least severe climate projection. In addition, the overall health of coral reefs declines under the climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 due to sea level rise, acidification, and increasing temperatures. In the most pessimistic scenario, Bonaire could experience a reduction in dive tourist arrivals of 118,000, which can lead to an economic contraction of 174 USDm (25%) in Bonaire’s GDP. In the absence of timely planning and implementation of adaptation measures, the impacts of climate change may have serious implications for inhabitants’ lifestyles and wellbeing. These results are imperative for various stakeholders, and stress that decision-makers should focus on the development and implementation of effective and feasible adaptation strategies urgently. Moreover, future researchers confronted with data scarcity in comparable contexts can utilise the novel methodologies employed in this study.