Development of a model to predict the probability of incurring a complication during spine surgery

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Predictive models in spine surgery are of use in shared decision-making. This study sought to develop multivariable models to predict the probability of general and surgical perioperative complications of spinal surgery for lumbar degenerative diseases. Methods Data came from EUROSPINE's Spine Tango Registry (1.2012–12.2017). Separate prediction models were built for surgical and general complications. Potential predictors included age, gender, previous spine surgery, additional pathology, BMI, smoking status, morbidity, prophylaxis, technology used, and the modified Mirza invasiveness index score. Complete case multiple logistic regression was used. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Plots were used to assess the calibration of the models. Results Overall, 23′714/68′111 patients (54.6%) were available for complete case analysis: 763 (3.2%) had a general complication, with ASA score being strongly predictive (ASA-2 OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.20–2.12; ASA-3 OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.19–4.07; ASA-4 OR 5.62, 95% CI 3.04–10.41), while 2534 (10.7%) had a surgical complication, with previous surgery at the same level being an important predictor (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.71–2.12). Respectively, model AUCs were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72–0.76) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62–0.65), and calibration was good up to predicted probabilities of 0.30 and 0.25, respectively. Conclusion We developed two models to predict complications associated with spinal surgery. Surgical complications were predicted with less discriminative ability than general complications. Reoperation at the same level was strongly predictive of surgical complications and a higher ASA score, of general complications. A web-based prediction tool was developed at https://sst.webauthor.com/go/fx/run.cfm?fx=SSTCalculator.