A Novel Warning Identification Framework for Risk-Informed Anomaly Detection

Abstract

Abstract Cyber-physical systems are taking on a permanent role in the industry, such as in oil and gas or mining. These systems are expected to perform increasingly autonomous tasks in complex settings removing human operators from remote and potentially hazardous environments. High autonomy necessitates a more extensive use of artificial intelligence methods, such as anomaly detection, to identify unusual occurrences in the monitored environment. The absence of data characterizing potentially hazardous events leads to disruptive noise displayed as false alarms, a common anomaly detection issue for hazard identification applications. Contrastingly, disregarding the false alarms can result in the opposite effect, causing loss of early indications of hazardous occurrences. Existing research introduces simulating and extrapolating less represented data to expand the information on hazards and semi-supervise the methods or by introducing thresholds and rule-based methods to balance noise and meaningful information, necessitating intensive computing resources. This research proposes a novel Warning Identification Framework that evaluates risk analysis objectives and applies them to discern between true and false warnings identified by anomaly detection. We demonstrate the results by analyzing three seismic hazard assessment methods for identifying seismic tremors and comparing the outcomes to anomalies found using the unsupervised anomaly detection method. The demonstrated approach shows great potential in enhancing the reliability and transparency of anomaly detection outcomes and, thus, supporting the operational decision-making process of a cyber-physical system.