US Population Eligibility and Estimated Impact of Tirzepatide Treatment on Obesity Prevalence and Cardiovascular Disease Events

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Tirzepatide promotes weight loss and reduces risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults with overweight and obesity. We examined the number of US adults eligible for tirzepatide and its impact on obesity and CVD events. Methods We identified US adults aged ≥ 18 years from the cross-sectional US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015–2018 eligible for tirzepatide based on SURMOUNT-1 trial eligibility criteria. Weight changes in SURMOUNT-1 from tirzepatide 15 mg treatment were used to project the impact on weight change and obesity prevalence in the population assuming titration to this dosage. We estimated 10-year CVD risks from BMI-based Framingham CVD risk scores before and after applying tirzepatide 15 mg treatment BMI and risk factor effects from SURMOUNT-1, the differences in estimated risks multiplied by the eligible NHANES weighted population representing the estimated “preventable” CVD events. Results We identified 4015 US adults (estimated population size of 93.4 million [M]) to fit SURMOUNT-1 eligibility criteria, representing 38% of US adults. When the effects of 15 mg tirzepatide were applied, we estimated 70.6% (65.9 M) and 56.7% (53.0 M) of adults to show ≥ 15% and ≥ 20% reductions in weight, respectively, translating to 58.8% (55.0 M) fewer persons with obesity. Among those without CVD, estimated 10-year CVD risks were 10.1% “before” and 7.7% “after” tirzepatide “treatment” reflecting a 2.4% absolute (and 23.6% relative) risk reduction translating to 2.0 million preventable CVD events over 10 years. Conclusion Tirzepatide treatment in appropriate US adults may substantially reduce obesity prevalence and CVD events, impacting beneficially on associated healthcare costs. Graphical Abstract