Operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework for ecological infrastructure

Abstract

AbstractScenarios are useful for considering development pathways under different future conditions. To manage a functioning ecological infrastructure (EI) as a network of natural and semi-natural habitats that can promote biodiversity and provide nature’s contributions to people (NCPs), one needs to understand future biophysical and socio-economic influences on its development. However, scenarios often do not incorporate the reciprocity of biophysical and societal changes. This has prompted new proposals from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) on the importance of creating nature-centered multiscale scenarios that include a normative dimension accounting for diverse human–nature relationships. In this contribution, we operationalize the Nature Futures Framework (NFF), developed under IPBES, into integrated normative and exploratory scenarios framing the development of a functioning EI in Switzerland until 2060. We follow a two-stage participatory approach methodologically aligned with the IPBES development. First, we elaborated positive visions for future EI with stakeholders in four regions of Switzerland. We then collaborated with experts to create integrated normative and exploratory scenarios through a process comprising literature research, workshops and a survey. By positioning status quo and future scenarios within the Nature Futures Framework, we demonstrate the diversity of nature values in a specific context of EI in Switzerland, thus contributing to the global set of Nature Futures scenarios. Integrating both plausible and desirable developments, these scenarios will serve as a valuable tool in the planning of long-term measures to ensure a functioning EI in Switzerland.