Prediction of numbers of the accumulative confirmed patients (NACP) and the plateau phase of 2019-nCoV in China

Abstract

AbstractIn the present study, I propose a novel fitting method to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. The fitted data were selected carefully from the non-Hubei part and Hubei Province of China respectively. For the non-Hubei part, the time period of data collection corresponds from the beginning of the policy of isolation to present day. But for Hubei Province, the subjects of Wuhan City and Hubei Province were included from the time of admission to the Huoshenshan Hospital to present day in order to ensure that all or the majority of the confirmed and suspected patients were collected for diagnosis and treatment. The employed basic functions for fitting are the hyperbolic tangent functions $$\tanh (.)$$ tanh ( . ) since in these cases the 2019-nCoV is just an epidemic. Subsequently, the 2019-nCoV will initially expand rapidly and tend to disappear. Therefore, the numbers of the accumulative confirmed patients in different cities, provinces and geographical regions will initially increase rapidly and subsequently stabilize to a plateau phase. The selection of the basic functions for fitting is crucial. In the present study, I found that the hyperbolic tangent functions $$\tanh (.)$$ tanh ( . ) could satisfy the aforementioned properties. By this novel method, I can obtain two significant results. They base on the conditions that the rigorous isolation policy is executed continually. Initially, I can predict the numbers very accurately of the cumulative confirmed patients in different cities, provinces and parts in China, notably, in Wuhan City with the smallest relative error estimated to $$0.021\%$$ 0.021 % , in Hubei Province with the smallest relative error estimated to $$0.012\%$$ 0.012 % and in the non-Hubei part of China with the smallest relative error of $$-$$ -  0.195% in the short-term period of infection. In addition, perhaps I can predict the times when the plateau phases will occur respectively in different regions in the long-term period of infection. Generally for the non-Hubei part of China, the plateau phase of the outbreak of the 2019-nCoV will be expected this March or at the end of this February. In the non-Hubei region of China it is expected that the epidemic will cease on the 30th of March 2020 and following this date no new confirmed patient will be expected. The predictions of the time of Inflection Points and maximum NACP for some important regions may be also obtained. A specific plan for the prevention measures of the 2019-nCoV outbreak must be implemented. This will involve the present returning to work and resuming production in China. Based on the presented results, I suggest that the rigorous isolation policy by the government should be executed regularly during daily life and work duties. Moreover, as many as possible the confirmed and suspected cases should be collected to diagnose or treat.