Abstract
Abstract
Key message
Model simulation results suggest that forests in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California will tend to increase in density and basal area in the absence of fire over the next century, and that climate change will favor increases in drought-tolerant species.
Context
Climate change is projected to intensify the natural summer drought period for Mediterranean-climate forests. Such changes may increase tree mortality, change species interactions and composition, and impact ecosystem services.
Aims
To parameterize SORTIE-ND, an individual-based, spatially explicit forest model, for forests in the Sierra Nevada, and to model forest responses to climate change.
Methods
We use 3 downscaled GCM projections (RCP 8.5) to project forest dynamics for 7 sites at different elevations.
Results
Basal area and stem density tended to increase in the absence of fire. Climate change effects differed by species, with more drought-tolerant species such as Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi A.Murray bis) and black oak (Quercus kelloggii Newb.) exhibiting increases in basal area and/or density.
Conclusion
Increasing forest density may favor carbon sequestration but could increase the risk of high-severity fires. Future analyses should include improved parameterization of reproduction and interactions of disturbance with climate effects.
Funder
National Science Foundation
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
4 articles.
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