An application of the splitting-up method for the computation of a neural network representation for the solution for the filtering equations

Abstract

AbstractThe filtering equations govern the evolution of the conditional distribution of a signal process given partial, and possibly noisy, observations arriving sequentially in time. Their numerical approximation plays a central role in many real-life applications, including numerical weather prediction [Llopis et al. (SIAM J Sci Comput 40(3):A1544–A1565, 2018), Galanis et al. (Geophysicae 24(10): 2451–2460, 2006)], finance [Brigo and Hanzon (Insurance Math Econom 22(1):53–64, 1998), Date and Ponomareva (IMA J Manag Math 22(3): 195–211, 2011), Crisan and Rozovskii (The Oxford handbook of nonlinear filtering, 2011)] and engineering [Myötyri et al. (Reliability Eng Syst Saf 91(2):200–208, 2005)]. One of the classical approaches to approximate the solution of the filtering equations is to use a PDE inspired method, called the splitting-up method, initiated by Gyongy, Krylov, LeGland, among other contributors, see e.g., Gyöngy and Krylov (Stochastic inequalities and applications, Progr. Probab. 56:301–321, 2003), Le Gland(Stochastic partial differential equations and their applications (Charlotte, NC, 1991), Lect. Notes Control Inf. Sci. 176:177–187, 1992). This method, and other PDE based approaches, have particular applicability for solving low-dimensional problems. In this work we combine this method with a neural network representation inspired by [Han et al. (Proc Natl acad Sci 115(34):8505–8510, 2018)]. The new methodology is used to produce an approximation of the unnormalised conditional distribution of the signal process. We further develop a recursive normalisation procedure to recover the normalised conditional distribution of the signal process. The new scheme can be iterated over multiple time steps whilst keeping its asymptotic unbiasedness property intact. We test the neural network approximations with numerical approximation results for the Kalman and Benes filter.