Integrating the functions and structures to assess ecological network sustainability under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Context Developing ecological networks (ENs) is a widely acknowledged conservation strategy for mitigating habitat fragmentation and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the sustainability of the ENs before or after their development in order to maintain their functions and ecosystem service. While most previous studies have explored ENs based on ecosystem service evaluation and structure construction, the functions and structures of EN have rarely been integrally assessed under climate change scenarios. Objective Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the study area, we aim to assess the future sustainability of the current EN under multiple climate change scenarios by integrating its functions and structures. Methods Ten scenarios were constructed, including a current scenario and nine future climate scenarios. Ecological sources were derived from the importance of the ecosystem service, and were used to develop EN by using the Linkage mapper toolbox. We then used the range difference between current and future ecological sources to indicate the functional sustainability of the current EN. The NetworkX was used to assess the EN structural stability by integrating the EN functional sustainability. Results The capacity of 6.23% of the current ecological sources is projected to decline in efficiently providing ecosystem services by 2050 under the selected nine future climate scenarios, and these functional degradations will also lead to a 33.55% decrease in the EN structural stability. Poor, low, and medium functional sustainable sources will be mostly located in forests and water bodies of the central YRDUA with a small average patch area, while high functional sustainable sources will be mainly distributed in the southwestern mountainous regions and water areas in the north-central region with a larger average patch area. Conclusion Our study provides a prospective assessment of EN, which is particularly crucial for enhancing ecological strategies and ensuring landscape sustainability. Constructing future climate scenarios and integrally assessing EN functional sustainability and structural stability can provide effective information for long-term EN management.