Predicted future range expansion of a small carnivore: swift fox in North America

Abstract

Abstract Context Small carnivores are declining globally due to a complex suite of threats. Conservation of these species requires an understanding of their distributions and potential responses to future land-use and climate change. Objectives We modelled species-environment relationships of swift fox (Vulpes velox), a species of concern across their range. We developed spatial projections of current and future distribution to aid in conservation planning. Methods We assembled swift fox occurrence data from managers and community science sources to develop ensemble distribution models. In addition to landscape and climatic predictors, we developed a model of red fox distribution to represent effects of competition. We forecasted spatial predictions into the year 2070 under two climate change scenarios representing high (SSP 5–8.5) and low (SSP 1–2.6) emissions scenarios. Results Percent cover by grassland, mean annual precipitation, and minimum temperature of the coldest quarter were the three most important variables for swift fox distribution. Current suitable habitat for swift fox extends across 16 North American states and provinces. Future projections of swift fox distribution suggest an overall increase in area of swift fox suitable habitat under both emissions scenarios of > 56.9%, though patterns of gain and loss vary spatially. Conclusions The expansion of suitable habitat in future scenarios reflects swift fox adaptability to multiple land uses in a period following multi-organizational conservation efforts. Our spatial projections can be used in conservation planning and can serve as a case study of a small carnivore species likely to recover under future change scenarios provided that threats are addressed and landscape-scale conservation efforts continue.