Analysis adapted from text mining quantitively reveals abrupt and gradual plant-community transitions after fire in sagebrush steppe

Abstract

Abstract Context Plant communities vary both abruptly and gradually over time but differentiating between types of change can be difficult with existing classification and ordination methods. Structural topic modeling (STRUTMO), a text mining analysis, offers a flexible methodology for analyzing both types of temporal trends. Objectives Our objectives were to (1) identify post-fire dominant sagebrush steppe plant association types and ask how they vary with time at a landscape (multi-fire) scale and (2) ask how often major association changes are apparent at the plot-level scale. Methods We used STRUTMO and plant species cover collected between 2002–2022 across six large burn areas (1941 plots) in the Great Basin, USA to characterize landscape change in dominant plant association up to 14 years post-fire. In a case study, we assessed frequency of large annual changes (≥ 10% increase in one association and decrease in another) between associations at the plot-level scale. Results STRUTMO revealed 10 association types dominated by either perennial bunchgrasses, mixed perennial or annual grasses and forbs, or exotic annual grasses. Across all study fires, associations dominated by large-statured perennial bunchgrasses increased then stabilized, replacing the Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda)-dominated association. The cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum)-dominant association decreased and then increased. At the plot-level, bidirectional changes among associations occurred in ~ 75% of observations, and transitions from annual invaded to perennial associations were more common than the reverse. Conclusions The analysis revealed that associations dominated by some species (i.e. crested wheatgrass, Agropyron cristatum, Siberian wheatgrass, Agropyron fridgida, or medusahead, Taeniatherum caput-medusae) were more stable than associations dominated by others (i.e. Sandberg bluegrass or cheatgrass). Strong threshold-like transitions were not observed at the multi-fire scale, despite frequent ephemeral plot-level changes.