Big cats persisting in human-dominated landscape: Habitat suitability and connectivity of leopards in central North China

Abstract

Abstract Context The leopard (Panthera pardus), the only large carnivore species occurring in central North China, has undergone substantial range contraction and population decline due to anthropogenic pressure across the region. Objectives In this study, we aimed to map its current suitable habitats and assess the degree of connectivity between core habitats to inform future conservation planning of this big cat at the landscape scale. Methods We conducted this study in central North China (34°11´ ~ 43°49´N, 103°11´ ~ 123°54´E, about 936,000 km2). We collected occurrence locations (N = 196) of leopards from 2014–2020, and modeled its habitat suitability using an “ensemble” species distribution model by incorporating environmental and anthropogenic variables. We then identified the potential dispersal corridors between core habitat patches (≥ 100 km2) through connectivity analysis. Results The leopards preferred humid forests at higher elevations with less human disturbance. Their suitable habitats were highly fragmented, with main core habitats located in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and the border between Gansu and Ningxia provinces. Among all the 8,679 km2 suitable habitats, we identified 14 core habitats (139–1,084 km2, mean = 495.21 km2) with a total area of 6,933 km2, among which only 25.26% (1,751 km2) are covered by nature reserves and only 11 core habitats were confirmed with leopard occurrence. We also identified 8 least-cost pathways among these core habitats with an average length of 57.22 km. Conclusions Our results revealed that, leopards are persisting in highly fragmented habitats with fragile connectivity among core habitats. The leopards remaining in North China should be considered and managed as a regional meta-population for their long-term persistence in the human-dominated landscape.