Reliability-based sizing of islanded multi-energy microgrid: a conic chance-constrained optimization approach

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents a methodology to optimally design a multi-energy microgrid with thermal and electric loads considering $$N-1$$ N - 1 and probabilistic regulation reserves. This methodology consists of a chance-constrained optimization that determines the optimal sizing of the microgrid. Microgrid operations are rigorously considered by modelling hourly thermal and electric demand patterns as well as technology production schedules over a year. Such schedules include both electric and thermal power balances, ramp constraints, $$N-1$$ N - 1 and regulation reserves, among others. To ensure a reliable microgrid design and operation, reserve constraints have been proposed to deal with both $$N-1$$ N - 1 generation contingencies, and forecast errors. $$N-1$$ N - 1 reserves guarantee that a sudden outage of any of the electric generators is strategically covered by the remaining generators in order to avoid load shedding. Additionally, nonzero-mean random forecast errors of electric load and solar production are addressed by a set of chance constraints able to schedule asymmetric up and down regulation reserves. Their levels are high enough to cover hourly random forecast errors (or intermittencies) with a high threshold probability. The proposed methodology results in a mixed integer second-order cone program. Results of microgrid designs with and without reliability reserves are carefully analysed and compared. Neglecting reliability constraints leads to a lower-cost design at the expense of exposing the microgrid to unsafe operation. Finally, sensitivity analysis to study the optimal portfolio sizing with respect to electric BESS investment cost, solar production forecast mean error, and random intermittency threshold probability are performed.