A Framework for Future-Oriented Assessment of Converging Technologies at National Level

Abstract

AbstractConverging technologies require intelligent policy-making as they have significant capabilities to develop disruptive innovations. In this regard, future-oriented technology assessment is vital given the great uncertainty about the consequences of and barriers to accessing these technologies. However, few frameworks have been developed to evaluate converging technologies, and most of those have neglected the unique dimensions of these technologies. Therefore, this study aims to provide a policymaking framework for converging technology development. Accordingly, the proposed framework is designed through a meta-synthesis of previous technology assessment frameworks by considering the feasibility, challenges, and achievements of converging technologies development pathways (CTDPs) as the key factors. Then, the framework is implemented in a case study of Iran and an appropriate strategy for each converging technologies development pathway is proposed based on a quadruple matrix of achievements and challenges. The results show that in Iran, biotechnology and cognitive technologies have the highest and lowest development horizons, respectively; and surprisingly, the combined field of biotechnology-cognitive is the most promising pair combination of converging technologies.