An approach to measure resilience of communities to climate change: a case study in Calabria (Southern Italy)

Abstract

Abstract Climate change effects already represent a serious challenge for people and environment. In particular, changes in precipitation, temperature, and weather systems are increasing the occurrence frequency of natural phenomena such as floods and landslides with consequent negative impacts in exposure and vulnerability of population living in risk areas. Hence, it is important to assess the social vulnerability and the community resilience which describe the ability of social systems to prepare for, absorb, and adapt to risks induced by climate change. In two sample areas located along the Tyrrhenian side of Calabria (Amantea and Lago municipalities, Southern Italy), we performed a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) of community resilience. Based on previous literature, we have selected five macro-indicators of social resilience (awareness, knowledge, information, trust, and social background). As sub-indicators for the characterization of these macro-indicators, we used the answers of the questions on climate change effects of a questionnaire submitted to citizens living in the sample areas, and, then, a specific weight was assigned to each sub-indicator, as well as to the macro-indicators. The multi-criteria analysis allowed to the classification of the studied areas in terms of an index of social resilience and to the individuation of the most influential macro-indicators for each of them. The results show that the two areas, which have similar resilience’s values, are influenced by different macro-indicators: knowledge and awareness for Amantea and information and trust for Lago. The findings of this study can be considered very useful for the management of vulnerable areas to climate change, because they are able to underline the aspects needing attention. In fact, providing information about the nuances of the resilience of community exposed to risks may help decision-makers in adopting and implementing more effective preventive measures to mitigate negative effects of climate change, fitting on local characteristics.