Extreme growth reaction of larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the Polish Sudetes and Carpathians: spatial distribution and climate impact

Abstract

Abstract Key message Extreme growth reaction analysis shows that larches in the Sudetes are more vulnerable to climate changes, but negative extreme responses will also be observed in the Carpathians in the near future. Abstract Pointer year analysis provides information on extreme tree-ring growth reactions, which can significantly improve the interpretation of tree growth response to climate. Similarities and differences in extreme growth responses of larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the Carpathians and the Sudetes (Polish parts) were studied. To this purpose, a pointer year analysis was performed. Regions with similar extreme growth response patterns to climatic conditions were distinguished. The spatial variability of extreme growth anomalies and the distribution of the determined widespread pointer years and their possible climatic forcing were analyzed. A coincidence of the positive pointer years observed in the Sudetes and lower Carpathians with wet and cold summers (especially during the previous year) was observed. Most of the subregional negative pointer years in the Sudetes are related to droughts whereas in the Carpathians this relation was not observed. Comparison of the extreme growth reaction of larch in both mountain regions suggest that larches in the Sudetes are more vulnerable to climate changes as the negative pointer years observed in the Sudetes are usually associated with droughts that are likely to intensify in the future. Similarities in the drivers of extreme responses of larch in both regions and predicted changes in climatic conditions suggest that negative extreme responses will also be observed in the Carpathians in the near future. The highest parts of the Carpathians (the Tatra Mountains) should be treated separately as both positive and negative pointer years observed there are temperature related. The obtained results suggest that the growth of larch stands in both regions will be negatively affected by predicted climate changes.