Uncertainty analysis in internal dose calculations for cerium considering the uncertainties of biokinetic parameters and S values

Abstract

AbstractRadioactive cerium and other lanthanides can be transported through the aquatic system into foodstuffs and then be incorporated by humans. Information on the uncertainty of reported dose coefficients for exposed members of the public is then needed for risk analysis. In this study, uncertainties of dose coefficients due to the ingestion of the radionuclides 141Ce and 144Ce were estimated. According to the schema of internal dose calculation, a general statistical method based on the propagation of uncertainty was developed. The method takes into account the uncertainties contributed by the biokinetic models and by the so-called S values. These S-values were derived by using Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations with five adult non-reference voxel computational phantoms that have been developed at Helmholtz Zentrum München, Germany. Random and Latin hypercube sampling techniques were applied to sample parameters of biokinetic models and S values. The uncertainty factors, expressed as the square root of the 97.5th and 2.5th percentile ratios, for organ equivalent dose coefficients of 141Ce were found to be in the range of 1.2–5.1 and for 144Ce in the range of 1.2–7.4. The uncertainty factor of the detriment-weighted dose coefficient for 141Ce is 2.5 and for 144Ce 3.9. It is concluded that a general statistical method for calculating the uncertainty of dose coefficients was developed and applied to the lanthanide cerium. The dose uncertainties obtained provide improved dose coefficients for radiation risk analysis of humans. Furthermore, these uncertainties can be used to identify those parameters most important in internal dose calculations by applying sensitivity analyses.