Change Detection and Trend Analysis of Future Temperature and Rainfall over West Africa

Abstract

AbstractThis paper examined future trends with change detection in temperature and rainfall over three agro-climatic zones of West Africa. Historical (1961–2000) and projection (2020–2099) data of ensemble-mean of six RCMs that dynamically downscaled five GCMs that participated in CMIP5 obtained from Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were used. Standard normal homogeneity, Buishand’s, Pettitt’s, and Mann–Kendall test were used for change point detection and trend analysis at 5% significant level. Inter-annual anomaly and projected change in the seasonal cycle relative to historical mean were investigated. The ensemble-mean evaluation performed for the historical period (1961–2000) using CRU dataset revealed that the change point occurred in rainfall and temperature series in the 1970s and 1980s, while a significant increasing trend is observed in temperature in all climatic zones. Change-point detection test projects rainfall series to be homogeneous as significant change point is expected to occur in temperature for all zones under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for near (2020–2059) and far-future (2060–2099). For the near-future, an increase in the mean temperature between 0.5–1.30 ℃ and 0.19–1.67 ℃ is projected to occur under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Projected relative change in seasonal cycle shows that winter months may witness increase in rainfall amounts under RCP4.5 but significantly dry under RCP8.5 in near and far-future as temperature is expected to become warmer in all months. Rainfall anomaly projects the Sahel to have a reduced amount of rainfall compared to other zones as temperature anomaly reveals a continuous increase in all the zones under the two RCPs. The results of this study show that climate change will intensify in West Africa in the future.