Multi-level emulation of tsunami simulations over Cilacap, South Java, Indonesia
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Published:2022-12-21
Issue:1
Volume:27
Page:127-142
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ISSN:1420-0597
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Container-title:Computational Geosciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Comput Geosci
Author:
Ehara Ayao, Salmanidou Dimitra M., Heidarzadeh Mohammad, Guillas SergeORCID
Abstract
AbstractCarrying out a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) requires a large number of simulations done at a high resolution. Statistical emulation builds a surrogate to replace the simulator and thus reduces computational costs when propagating uncertainties from the earthquake sources to the tsunami inundations. To reduce further these costs, we propose here to build emulators that exploit multiple levels of resolution and a sequential design of computer experiments. By running a few tsunami simulations at high resolution and many more simulations at lower resolutions we are able to provide realistic assessments whereas, for the same budget, using only the high resolution tsunami simulations do not provide a satisfactory outcome. As a result, PTHA can be considered with higher precision using the highest spatial resolutions, and for impacts over larger regions. We provide an illustration to the city of Cilacap in Indonesia that demonstrates the benefit of our approach.
Funder
Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation Lighthill Risk Network Lloyd’s Register Foundation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Royal Society
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Computational Mathematics,Computational Theory and Mathematics,Computers in Earth Sciences,Computer Science Applications
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