A Neural Network Approach to Value R&D Compound American Exchange Option

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper we show as the neural network methodology, coupled with the Least Squares Monte Carlo approach, can be very helpful in valuing R&D investment opportunities. As it is well known, R&D projects are made in a phased manner, with the commencement of subsequent phase being dependent on the successful completion of the preceding phase. This is known as a sequential investment and therefore R&D projects can be considered as compound options. In addition, R&D investments often involve considerable cost uncertainty so that they can be viewed as an exchange option, i.e. a swap of an uncertain investment cost for an uncertain gross project value. Finally, the production investment can be realized at any time before the maturity date, after that the effects of R&D disappear. Consequently, an R&D project can be considered as a compound American exchange option. In this context, the Least Squares Monte Carlo method is a powerful and flexible tool for capital budgeting decisions and for valuing American-type options. But, using the simulated values as “targets”, the implementation of a neural network allows to extend the results for any R&D valuation and to abate the waiting time of Least Squares Monte Carlo simulation.