An analytic network process model to prioritize supply chain risks in green residential megaprojects

Abstract

Abstract Megaprojects and specifically ‘green’ construction of residential megaprojects can contain significant risks of failure. To design proper risk mitigation strategies, after identifying key risk factors, the next step is to conduct assessments that would facilitate the process of risk element prioritization. Risk assessment comprises the establishment of factor interrelation and discerning the indicators of importance. This research proposes a novel version of an integrated prioritization method and analyzes twelve all-inclusive key supply chain oriented risk factors identified in a previous study. Through a comprehensive literature review three criteria, impact, probability, and manageability are selected. Also, a fourth criterion namely influence rate is included in the model, based on the driving powers that can also be derived from the Interpretive Structural Modeling’s (ISM) assessment. Fundamentally, the calculations hinge on the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method which provides an assessment of the alternatives’ weights based on pairwise comparisons concerning the criteria specified. To enhance the accuracy of the perceptive judgments of the expert panelists, a bell-shaped fuzzy function is used to convert the verbal statements to crisp values. In addition, Row Sensitivity Analysis is administered to check the stability of the results and provide predictive scenarios. To validate the model, a case study, located in Iran, was conducted, where an expert panel consisting of four individuals made the pair-wise comparisons through an ANP questionnaire. Results indicate priority and sensitivity of the alternatives concerning criteria, for the case under study.